Agree with your analyses of Nog vs. Cain. Nog has all the skills, and there is no tougher fighter. He’s taken beatings that would have crushed a lesser man, and come back to win. What I don’t think Nogueira has in this instance is the nimble swiftness on his feet to slip Velasquez’ takedowns, or the brute strength to manipulate Cain in the clinches or on the ground. Absorbing vast amounts of punishment then coming back to win has made Nogueira a fan favorite and a legend in the sport, but I’m not sure he can take all a powerful fighter like Velasquez has to give, and then have something left with which to submit him or knock him out.

Looking forward to an excellent contest between well matched opponents, whose styles should make this a real war of wills. I give Nogueira all the respect and admiration for his accomplishments, but I think this may be Cain’s moment to rise.

Anyway, Boo watch the Randy fight again, because sure, he popped Nog with plenty of great shots, but rocked him? I don;t remember that happening at all. All I remember was Nog having Randy in really bad spots throughout the fight, sure Randy survived like the warrior he is, but mounted little or no significant offense at all.

With that said, it seems that Cain Velasquez has the potential to be a very bad match-up for Nog. He’s a beast wrestler with sick takedowns, positioning, and control. He may not have KOd anybody really badly, but I saw significantly more power in his punches against Ben Rothwell than when he fought Cheick Kongo. It’s jut another sign that he’s improving all the time. The question of course is, how is Cain’s Jiu-Jitsu game? Let’s not forget he trains under Dave Camarillo, a former student of the great Ralph Gracie and training partner and friend of BJ Penn. Camarillo knows his shit and is a great instructor. Does that mean Cain will rival Nog in the grappling department? Definately not, but all he really needs is decent submission defense and a clear head, because it only takes one mistake on the ground to get subbed by a guy like Nog. However, if he comes ready like that, I think he will win. I think he will be able to take Nog down pretty much at will. Another question is whether or not Cain can effectively pass Nog’s guard, or how well can Nog recover guard if Cain takes him down and lands in side control? I have a hard time seeing Nog being able to sweep a guy with such a strong base, but if he does, then I think it’s anybody’s game. Cain can beat on him from top popsition all he wants, it’s gonna be a tough one for Nog. I’m pulling for Nog, but I think he has his hands full. He’s always had underrated hands and may be able to outbox Cain, but I don;t think that will be too much of a factor with Cain’s beast takedowns.

Coming off of his great win over Randy Couture, Big Nog silenced a lot of doubters and put himself back in the heavyweight mix. Against a rising star like Velasquez, he’ll have to train hard, stay healthy, and have a great night in the cage to maintain momentum.

I would see Nogueira’s advantage in this match on his feet, but we know he can handle handle himself on the ground as well. Cain is an excellent wrestler, with the strength and athleticism to go three strong rounds, so it should be a great fight.